Implied probability gap
Deribit options-implied odds vs Polymarket crowd (BTC)
Market Polymarket Deribit Gap
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? 2027-01-01 7.5% 10.3% +2.8 pp
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 5? 2026-09-05 100.0% 100.0% +0.0 pp
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 5? 2026-09-05 100.0% 100.0% +0.1 pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? 2027-01-01 13.5% 14.4% +1.0 pp
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? 2027-01-01 6.5% 6.7% +0.2 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? 2026-10-01 4.7% 6.6% +1.9 pp
Source: Deribit public API × Polymarket Gamma, refreshed every 15 minutes

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