Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 07.02.2026

BTC REBOUND AMID FALLING YIELDS

🟡 Neutral — macro has softened, but fear and outflows are holding the market back

The main change of the day is a noticeable decline in yields: 10-year Treasuries fell to 4.21% (from 4.29% yesterday), 2-year — to 3.47% (from 3.57%), and the real yield also declined to 1.89% (from 1.94%). This usually makes life easier for risk assets, but VIX simultaneously jumped to 21.77 (from 18.64) — nervousness in the markets increased, so the “rate softening” effect is not yet turning into steady demand.

In crypto — a sharp rebound: BTC rose to $70,663 (yesterday $64,823, +9.01% in 24 hours), but the picture remains fragile: over the week it’s still around -15.7%, and the fear and greed index collapsed to 6 (extreme fear). At the same time, outflows from BTC ETFs have not eased: about -$434M for the day and roughly -$2.04B over 7 days, plus a noticeable decline in total ETF assets ($80.76B versus $93.51B yesterday). Compared to yesterday’s scenario of “correction due to ETFs and panic,” today an important nuance was added: the macro backdrop has become a bit softer, but institutional flow is still against the market — therefore the rebound looks more like a breather than a reversal. The nearest catalyst is the data block on February 11–13 (NFP, CPI and Treasury auctions): it is the reaction of yields and the dollar to these events that will determine whether the recovery will consolidate.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) US yields: continued decline in 2Y/10Y may support BTC’s recovery.
2) BTC-ETF flows: without a fading of weekly outflows, rebounds will be vulnerable.
3) February 11–13 (NFP, CPI, auctions): risk of sharp moves and a “reflashing” of rate expectations.