Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 20.03.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS ESCALATES, FINANCIAL CONDITIONS TIGHTER
🔴 Negative — anxiety is rising, rates and real yields up.
The key change over the past 24 hours is a new spike in tensions around Iran, and the market immediately “tightened” insurance: the VIX rose to 25.09 (+12% on the day), and yields increased (10-year 4.26% versus 4.20% yesterday; 2-year 3.76% versus 3.68%). Real yield also ticked up to 1.86% (from 1.83%), which raises the opportunity cost of holding BTC. The dollar, meanwhile, didn’t move on the day, but has strengthened noticeably over the week, so the backdrop for risk remains tight.
In crypto the picture is mixed: BTC held around $70,772 and the daily drop has almost faded (-0.1% over 24h after -4.5% yesterday), but weekly dynamics have already turned negative (-0.79%). The most unpleasant part is the reversal in institutional demand: yesterday there was an inflow into BTC-ETF, today there is an outflow again (-$90m), and the weekly inflow has sharply “shrunk” to $497m (from $1.17bn). Against this backdrop, the fear and greed index has collapsed to 11 — this is the extreme fear zone, which often coincides with a phase of emotional sell-offs, but without stabilization in headlines and financial conditions, bounces may be short.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Geopolitical headlines: they are now directly driving the VIX and risk appetite.
2) Yields and the real rate: a hold of the 10Y above 4.26% and rising TIPS — an additional burden for BTC.
3) Flows into BTC-ETF: a return to steady inflows will be the main signal that “smart money” is supporting the market again.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.55 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.26% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.76% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.86% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.43% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 25.09 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.50% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.56% | +0.25% |
| BTC Price | $70,772 | +0.89% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.10% | +92.81% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.79% | -2,533.33% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 51.37% | -11.90% |
| Fear & Greed | 11 | -52.17% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.66% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 853.05% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.64% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,802.21% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -90.19% | +44.84% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 496.66% | -40.72% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 90.83% | -1.35% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | — | — |