Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 21.03.2026
Risk OffGEOPOLITICS KEEPS THE MARKET ON EDGE
🟡 Neutral — anxiety is easing, but the backdrop remains fragile
The main driver of the day is the Middle East agenda and the jump in oil expectations: this keeps investors in a cautious mode. At the same time, there is a small plus — the stock market fear index fell to 24.06 (from 25.09 yesterday), meaning the sharpness of the “risk-off” move has slightly dulled. The dollar remains strong (has strengthened noticeably over the week), and short rates are high: the 2-year yield is around 3.79% and is holding near very high levels of recent months — this continues to be a headwind for crypto.
In crypto, the picture is more about a pause after the hit: BTC is around $70,634 and barely moving, and volatility over the past month is noticeably lower than usual — the market seems to be “compressing” before the next impulse. Crowd sentiment remains extremely anxious (Fear & Greed = 12), but slightly better than yesterday. The weak spot is institutional flows: the daily flow for BTC-ETF is still negative (-$52M), and the 7-day inflow has cooled noticeably ($329M vs $497M yesterday), so the recovery still looks uncertain. From yesterday’s state, there is one important change: fear has eased slightly, but reliance on ETFs has become weaker — because of this, the market remains vulnerable to a new round of geopolitics.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Geopolitical headlines and oil: a new spike usually brings pressure back on risk.
2) VIX: a sustained move below 20–22 will be a signal that panic is fading.
3) Flows into BTC-ETF: a shift to steady daily inflows will bring back “fuel” for a rebound.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.55 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.25% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.79% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.88% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.43% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 24.06 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.46% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.50% | -0.04% |
| BTC Price | $70,634 | -0.21% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.19% | -121.11% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.57% | -2,750.00% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 51.05% | -11.89% |
| Fear & Greed | 12 | +9.09% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.66% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 853.05% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.82% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,802.03% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -52.11% | +42.22% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 329.38% | -33.68% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 90.30% | -0.58% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | — | — |