Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 25.03.2026

GEOPOLITICS KEEPS THE MARKET ON EDGE

🟡 Neutral — yields pulled back, but anxiety remains high

The main thing today is “the strike has already been delivered,” but the market is trying to catch its breath: against the backdrop of news about strikes and the expansion of the conflict, investors remain in defense mode, although yields have eased slightly (10-year 4.34% vs 4.39% yesterday; 2-year 3.83% vs 3.88%). At the same time, anxiety isn’t going away: the VIX is holding above 25 (26.15), and real yields remain high (2.01) and have risen noticeably over the week — this continues to raise the “cost of waiting” for BTC.

Crypto looks more resilient than one might have expected in this backdrop: BTC around 70,917 (+0.84% over the day), the weekly decline has narrowed slightly (to -4.4%), and 30-day volatility has fallen to 50.33 — the market is getting “quieter,” which often precedes a sharp move. But it’s important that institutional support via ETFs is no longer increasing: weekly inflows are 442.7 million, and they are noticeably weaker than before; at the same time, ETF AUM fell over the week (91.7 billion, -5.2%). Sentiment is in “extreme fear” (14), but has slightly lifted off yesterday’s lows — this looks more like a cautious breather in the correction than a reversal.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) Whether the VIX can drop below 25 — this is the key to the return of risk appetite.
2) Real yield dynamics: a new rise will pressure BTC even with a stable dollar.
3) Flows into BTC ETFs: several days of accelerating inflows are needed, otherwise the rise will be fragile.