Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 26.03.2026
NeutralYIELDS ARE RISING, ANXIETY ISN’T EASING
🔴 Negative — real yields and the VIX increased pressure.
The main change of the day is further tightening of financial conditions: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.39% (about +5 bps on the day), the 2-year — to 3.90% (+7 bps), and the real yield increased to 2.06% (+5 bps). Against this backdrop, anxiety remains elevated (VIX 26.95, +0.8 points), and the geopolitical agenda continues to keep markets in defensive mode; the dollar, meanwhile, is almost unchanged.
In crypto, the picture is mixed: BTC slipped slightly over the day (70,750$, -0.83%), but overall is holding around 70k, and the weekly result has nearly leveled out. At the same time, sentiment has become even more nervous (fear and greed index 10 — extreme fear zone), and support from ETFs has noticeably weakened: daily inflow has almost disappeared (+7.8 mln$ vs +167 mln$ yesterday), and over the week the balance moved into a small negative. Compared with yesterday’s thesis, the market has become more vulnerable precisely due to the rise in real yields and the cooling of ETFs: without a decline in the VIX and stabilization of rates, attempts to rise will be difficult.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Real yield (TIPS): if it continues to rise, pressure on BTC will persist even with a stable dollar.
2) VIX above 25: a move below 25 will be the first sign that the market has “felt relief.”
3) BTC-ETF inflows/outflows: a return of steady daily inflows is needed, otherwise BTC’s growth will be driven mainly by spot and derivatives.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.28 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.39% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.90% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.06% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.43% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 26.95 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.49% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.55% | -0.02% |
| BTC Price | $70,750 | -0.83% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.24% | -116.55% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.13% | -144.83% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 49.46% | -16.08% |
| Fear & Greed | 10 | -28.57% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.66% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 853.05% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.78% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.67% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,802.07% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 7.81% | +110.48% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -5.94% | -103.16% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 91.63% | +2.11% |