Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 29.04.2026
NeutralTHE MARKET IS NERVOUS AHEAD OF THE FED
🟡 Neutral — fear in crypto is rising, but there is no panic in stocks
The main thing today is anticipation of the Fed’s decision amid an escalation of the trade-and-sanctions agenda: the news backdrop adds uncertainty, although this is barely visible in the classic stress indicators. The VIX fell to 18.02 (from 18.71 yesterday), and yields overall are standing still; at the same time, the dollar has strengthened slightly over the week (DXY 118.73), which in itself remains a mild drag on risk assets.
In crypto, the picture is “mixed”: BTC bounced over the past 24 hours (77260, +1.35%), but weekly dynamics are already negative (around -0.3%), and sentiment has noticeably worsened — the fear and greed index fell to 26 (from 33). On ETFs, pressure is easing: the daily outflow shrank to -$89.7 mln (yesterday it was -$263.2 mln), but the weekly inflow cooled sharply to $470.8 mln (from $1.22 bln) — institutions are in no hurry to increase risk ahead of the Fed and tomorrow’s PCE. Against this backdrop, the key headwind hasn’t gone anywhere: net liquidity over the week has noticeably declined (around -4.25%), and the rise in the TGA indicates that cash continues to be “pulled” out of the system — therefore, BTC’s bounce so far looks more like a breather within a correction than the start of a sustainable upswing.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) The Fed decision today: more important than the rate will be the tone and hints about further steps.
2) PCE tomorrow: a strong reading could bring back pressure via the dollar and financial conditions.
3) Flows into BTC ETFs: a shift to steady daily inflows is the main signal that demand has returned.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.73 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.35% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.78% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.91% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 18.02 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.57% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.06% | +0.17% |
| BTC Price | $77,260 | +1.35% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.49% | +144.95% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.28% | -135.44% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 37.91% | +6.97% |
| Fear & Greed | 26 | -21.21% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.71% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 1,005.97% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.64% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.69% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,700.79% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -89.68% | +65.92% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 470.84% | -61.55% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 100.39% | -0.83% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | — | — |
| Apr 30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.20 | 3.00 |