Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 21.05.2026
NeutralYIELDS ROSE, CRYPTO HOLDS UP
🟡 Neutral — headwind from rates, but no panic.
Today the most noticeable move was the rise in yields: 10-year Treasuries climbed to 4.67% (from 4.61% yesterday), 2-year — to 4.13% (from 4.07%), and real yields — to 2.18% (from 2.13%). Against this backdrop, it’s usually harder for crypto to develop a sustainable upswing: the opportunity cost of holding BTC rises, and the dollar remains strong (DXY unchanged on the day, but noticeably strengthened over the week). At the same time, the fear index in the stock market is low (VIX 18.06), meaning there is no broad “flight from risk” yet.
Within crypto, the picture is slightly better than yesterday: BTC added about 1.6% over 24 hours, the weekly result became less negative, and sentiment is thawing slightly (Fear & Greed 29). An important nuance — outflows via BTC ETFs noticeably decreased over the day (about -70 million versus -331 million yesterday), but the weekly total is still very weak (around -2.1 billion): institutional demand has not yet turned. BTC volatility remains extremely low (about 27% annualized) — the market seems to be “compressing,” and under such conditions any news-driven acceleration (geopolitics/rates) can quickly awaken movement. Relative to yesterday, the overall regime does not change: sideways movement persists, it’s just that ETF outflows became less aggressive on the daily horizon.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Real yields: if they continue to rise, BTC bounces will be choppy.
2) BTC-ETF flows: the shift from “outflows slowed” to sustained inflows is important.
3) The next major macro trigger — the PCE index in a week: the market will get nervous in advance in rates and the dollar.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.28 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.67% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.13% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.18% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.78% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.74% | — |
| VIX | 18.06 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.54% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.23% | — |
| BTC Price | $77,955 | +0.70% |
| BTC Return 24h | 1.64% | +67.35% |
| BTC Return 7d | -1.82% | +27.49% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 26.91% | -3.69% |
| Fear & Greed | 29 | +7.41% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.73% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 838.58% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 24.87% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.69% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,865.05% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -70.47% | +78.71% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -2,077.74% | -4.94% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 101.12% | +0.83% |