Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 02.07.2026
NeutralJOBS REPORT
🟡 Neutral — BTC has bounced, but ETF flows still disagree.
Yesterday I expected a stronger-than-expected jobs print to keep the correction alive if BTC stayed below its control level and ETF flows stayed negative. Too early to judge the payrolls leg; got price repair, not flow repair: BTC reclaimed the level, while the latest BTC ETF print remains an outflow. The critical overnight backdrop is Iran-war disruption in Chinese petrochemicals trade, but market reaction looks largely absorbed; today’s driver is still the jobs report and its Fed-rate read-through.
The hook is the ten-day BTC ETF outflow streak: the latest print is still negative and the seven-day drain is $1.89bn. That means the bounce is mostly price and sentiment repair, not yet an institutional demand turn. Fear has eased from the floor, but the market remains in a fear regime, so rebounds have room — and still need confirmation.
The macro dashboard is unusually patchy: the dollar, Treasury yields and VIX have not refreshed, so I would not treat them as daily signals. The last readings still describe a firm dollar and sticky front-end rates, while equity volatility does not show acute stress. Warsh’s “prices are too high” tone keeps the rates read-through relevant, but not decisive before payrolls.
SCENARIOS: if payrolls beat consensus and the next market update shows the dollar and the two-year yield firming, the bounce is vulnerable unless BTC holds its reclaimed control level. If payrolls are soft, the market may read it as rate-cut friendly, but crypto still needs confirmation through a positive BTC ETF flow or at least a break in the outflow streak.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) NFP above 114,000 plus BTC back below 60,040 → relief bounce likely fails; below consensus plus BTC holding above that level → stabilization improves.
2) Next BTC ETF print: any inflow ends the outflow streak; another outflow worse than $294.62m keeps institutions on the sell side.
3) Stablecoin market cap: recovery above $305.1bn would ease the internal liquidity concern; a fresh weekly low would keep the bounce fragile.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.89 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.44% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.14% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.20% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 4.17% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.82% | — |
| VIX | 16.45 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.30% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 55.81% | — |
| BTC Price | $60,721 | -0.05% |
| BTC Return 24h | 2.50% | -33.33% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.88% | -109.52% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 43.16% | -0.12% |
| Fear & Greed | 19 | +72.73% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.74% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 918.70% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 1.00% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 23.05% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,815.90% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -294.62% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -1,889.16% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 72.46% | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,483.23 | — |
| DeFi TVL | 70.70% | +0.14% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | 305.10% | — |
| USDT Peg | 1.00% | -0.01% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 114.00 | 129.00 |