Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 25.02.2026
NeutralBTC BOUNCE AMID A NERVOUS MARKET
🟡 Neutral — rates down, but anxiety and ETF outflows interfere
Key takeaways for the day: yields fell noticeably (10-year 4.03% vs 4.08% yesterday; 2-year 3.43% vs 3.48%), and real yields also moved lower (1.77% vs 1.80%) — this usually makes life easier for risk assets. But the VIX jumped to 21.01 (from 19.09), meaning the stock market has become noticeably more nervous; meanwhile, the dollar is unchanged, and overall liquidity has barely moved.
Bitcoin bounced to $65,444 (about +3.4% on the day), and weekly performance became less negative, but “fuel” from institutions has not yet appeared: daily flow into BTC ETFs is negative again (-$203.82M), and ETF assets under management fell to $80.74B. The Fear & Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone (11) — this creates a foundation for sharp bounces, but without a reversal in ETF flows the market remains vulnerable to renewed selling.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC holding above $65,000: consolidation matters more than the bounce itself.
2) BTC-ETF flows: a shift from outflows to a series of inflows is needed, otherwise the rise will be “on thin ice.”
3) VIX around/above 20: further growth in anxiety could quickly bring pressure back to crypto.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 117.99 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.03% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.43% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.77% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.39% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.51% | — |
| VIX | 21.01 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.60% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.15% | +0.29% |
| BTC Price | $65,445 | +2.08% |
| BTC Return 24h | 3.34% | +455.32% |
| BTC Return 7d | -3.43% | +31.94% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 70.21% | -7.62% |
| Fear & Greed | 11 | +37.50% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.61% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 912.73% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.92% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,699.76% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -203.82% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -914.84% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 80.74% | — |