Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 26.02.2026
NeutralBTC BOUNCE AMID DECLINING ANXIETY
🟢 Positive — fear is decreasing, ETF inflows have returned
Today’s shift is a decline in market anxiety: the VIX fell from 21.01 to 19.55, while the dollar and yields barely changed (10-year 4.04%, 2-year 3.43%). That is, the external backdrop didn’t interfere, and the “temperature” in the markets became lower — this usually gives risk assets room for a bounce.
BTC gained about 4.82% over the day to $68,602, and more importantly: the daily flow into BTC ETFs turned positive again (+$257.71M), and the weekly outflow noticeably decreased (from -$914.84M to -$246.76M). This reduces the risk that any rise will immediately be “sold via ETFs,” although by ETF assets under management it’s still clear that the consequences of past sell-offs haven’t disappeared ($81.3B, -2.79% over the week). Sentiment in crypto remains extremely pessimistic (fear and greed index 11), so the market may move in jerks: the bounce is already there, but confirmation of sustainability is several days in a row without a return of large outflows.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC ETF flows: will the streak of inflows hold after +$257.71M in a day.
2) Anxiety index: holding the VIX below 20 usually supports risk.
3) The $65,000 level for BTC: in case of a pullback, it’s important that it remains support.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 117.99 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.04% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.43% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.78% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.39% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.51% | — |
| VIX | 19.55 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.61% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.20% | +0.32% |
| BTC Price | $68,602 | +0.31% |
| BTC Return 24h | 4.82% | -27.74% |
| BTC Return 7d | 2.73% | -9.00% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 72.71% | -8.79% |
| Fear & Greed | 11 | — |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.61% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 912.73% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 1.16% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,699.51% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 257.71% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -246.76% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 81.30% | — |