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Yieldo
Crypto Analytics

Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 26.02.2026

Neutral

BTC BOUNCE AMID DECLINING ANXIETY

🟢 Positive — fear is decreasing, ETF inflows have returned

Today’s shift is a decline in market anxiety: the VIX fell from 21.01 to 19.55, while the dollar and yields barely changed (10-year 4.04%, 2-year 3.43%). That is, the external backdrop didn’t interfere, and the “temperature” in the markets became lower — this usually gives risk assets room for a bounce.
BTC gained about 4.82% over the day to $68,602, and more importantly: the daily flow into BTC ETFs turned positive again (+$257.71M), and the weekly outflow noticeably decreased (from -$914.84M to -$246.76M). This reduces the risk that any rise will immediately be “sold via ETFs,” although by ETF assets under management it’s still clear that the consequences of past sell-offs haven’t disappeared ($81.3B, -2.79% over the week). Sentiment in crypto remains extremely pessimistic (fear and greed index 11), so the market may move in jerks: the bounce is already there, but confirmation of sustainability is several days in a row without a return of large outflows.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) BTC ETF flows: will the streak of inflows hold after +$257.71M in a day.
2) Anxiety index: holding the VIX below 20 usually supports risk.
3) The $65,000 level for BTC: in case of a pullback, it’s important that it remains support.

Market State

Market Phase
reversal
Risk Level
moderate

All Indicators

Event Value Change
US Dollar Index 117.99
US 10Y Treasury 4.04%
US 2Y Treasury 3.43%
US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) 1.78%
Fed Funds Rate 3.64%
CPI (YoY) 2.39%
Core CPI (YoY) 2.51%
VIX 19.55
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) 0.61%
BTC Dominance 56.20% +0.32%
BTC Price $68,602 +0.31%
BTC Return 24h 4.82% -27.74%
BTC Return 7d 2.73% -9.00%
BTC Vol 30d (ann.) 72.71% -8.79%
Fear & Greed 11
Fed Balance Sheet 6.61%
Treasury General Account 912.73%
Reverse Repo 1.16%
M2 Money Supply 22.44%
Net Liquidity 5,699.51%
BTC ETF Daily Flow 257.71%
BTC ETF 7d Flow -246.76%
BTC ETF AUM 81.30%