Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 10.03.2026
NeutralTHE DOLLAR AND ANXIETY ARE RISING, BTC IS HOLDING UP
🔴 Negative — macro is pressing, the rebound in crypto is fragile
The key change of the day is a sharp strengthening of the defensive regime: the dollar noticeably strengthened over the day (DXY 119.49, +1.42% vs yesterday), and the anxiety index jumped to 29.49 (+24% vs yesterday), which fits well with the geopolitical backdrop around Iran and oil spikes. Yields barely moved (10-year at 4.15% unchanged on the day), but the combination of “strong dollar + high VIX” usually cuts risk appetite.
At the same time, BTC managed to add and return to 70,038 (+4.27% vs yesterday), and daily flows in BTC ETFs flipped to positive (+$167M vs -$349M yesterday) — this is an important counterargument to the bearish picture. However, fear remains extreme (index 13), and the rise in BTC dominance (56.9) indicates that the market prefers “quality” and is not ready to broadly buy altcoins. Compared to yesterday’s state, the market looks less vulnerable due to the reversal of ETF flows and the price rebound, but the overall regime is still defensive because of the strong dollar and the spike in anxiety.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Tomorrow’s CPI (expectation 2.5%): an upside surprise could strengthen the dollar and increase pressure on crypto.
2) Whether the inflow into BTC ETFs holds: one day is a signal, but not a trend.
3) Levels: the 70,000 zone for BTC as the nearest test of the rebound; for DXY — 119.5 as the current pressure point.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.49 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.15% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.56% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.80% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.39% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.51% | — |
| VIX | 29.49 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.59% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.90% | +0.44% |
| BTC Price | $70,038 | +2.02% |
| BTC Return 24h | 4.31% | +18.73% |
| BTC Return 7d | 2.83% | +1,330.43% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 51.94% | -10.92% |
| Fear & Greed | 13 | +62.50% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.63% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 832.05% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.33% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,796.51% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 167.03% | +147.88% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 707.93% | -10.99% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 88.34% | +1.46% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | CPI YoY | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Mar 11 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.18 |
| Mar 12 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.75 |