Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 11.03.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS LETS GO, CRYPTO COOLS OFF
🟡 Neutral — anxiety has eased, but the dollar is still pressing
The key change of the day is a noticeable decline in market anxiety: VIX fell to 25.5 from 29.49, amid signals that tensions around oil may be easing. At the same time, pressure from the dollar hasn’t gone anywhere: DXY is flat on the day, but up 1.42% over the week, and 10-year yields are almost unchanged (4.12%).
In crypto, the picture is mixed: BTC is holding around $70,137, but the momentum over the past 24 hours has almost run out of steam (24h return fell to 0.13% from 4.31%), which looks like a pause after the rebound. Meanwhile, institutional demand looks more resilient: daily inflows into BTC ETFs rose to $250.92m, and 7-day inflows — to $986.4m, with assets under management rising to $90.02bn. Against this backdrop, systemic liquidity remains strong (weekly +1.24% and one of the highest readings in 90 days), but sentiment is still “in the basement” (fear and greed index 15), so the market remains sensitive to any surprises on inflation and to Treasury auctions.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Reaction to CPI today: more important than the number is the move in the dollar and yields after the release.
2) Whether the streak of inflows into BTC ETFs will hold: continuation will support the attempt to hold 70k.
3) PCE in 2 days and Treasury auctions today/tomorrow: they can quickly tighten financial conditions via rising yields.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.49 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.12% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.56% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.78% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.39% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.51% | — |
| VIX | 25.50 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.56% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.96% | +0.18% |
| BTC Price | $70,137 | +0.63% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.13% | -91.50% |
| BTC Return 7d | 3.50% | +66.67% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 51.20% | -11.50% |
| Fear & Greed | 15 | +15.38% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.63% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 832.05% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.28% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,796.57% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 250.92% | +50.22% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 986.40% | +39.34% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 90.02% | +1.90% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | CPI YoY | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Mar 11 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.18 |
| Mar 12 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.75 |
| Mar 13 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.10 | 3.00 |