Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 12.03.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS KEEPS THE MARKET ON EDGE
🟡 Neutral — the dollar is strong, anxiety is high, liquidity holds.
The main shift of the day is not in the dollar or nominal yields (they are almost unchanged), but in the combination “inflation/real rates/geopolitics.” CPI ticked up slightly to 2.43%, while core inflation declined to 2.47% — the picture is mixed, but for the Fed the slowdown in the core measure is more important. At the same time, the real yield on 10-year TIPS rose to 1.82%, and the VIX remains elevated (24.93) — this keeps financial conditions tight and makes any rebounds in crypto more fragile.
In crypto: BTC slid to $69,392 (about -1.4% over the day, down for the week), and inflows into BTC ETFs noticeably cooled: +$115M for the day versus +$251M yesterday, the weekly total fell to +$643M. At the same time, systemic liquidity remains high and almost unchanged, but the rise in reverse repo volume to $0.552B looks like a local “suction” of liquidity from the market. The Fear & Greed Index is still in the zone of pronounced fear (18), but bounced slightly — panic is not building, rather the market is compressing in anticipation of tomorrow’s PCE and further news on Iran.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) PCE tomorrow: the reaction of the dollar and real rates is more important than the number itself.
2) BTC ETF inflows/outflows: if the weekly total continues to deflate, it will be harder for BTC to hold the range.
3) Headlines on Iran and oil: with the VIX around 25, any spike in anxiety quickly hits risk assets.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.49 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.15% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.57% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.82% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.43% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 24.93 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.58% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.78% | -0.19% |
| BTC Price | $69,393 | -1.36% |
| BTC Return 24h | -1.09% | -218.48% |
| BTC Return 7d | -4.71% | -44.48% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 50.88% | -12.23% |
| Fear & Greed | 18 | +20.00% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.63% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 832.05% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.55% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,796.30% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 115.17% | -54.10% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 643.39% | -34.77% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 90.89% | +0.97% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | CPI YoY | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Mar 11 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.18 |
| Mar 12 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.75 |
| Mar 13 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.10 | 3.00 |