Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 13.03.2026

GEOPOLITICS PRESSURES, BITCOIN HOLDS UP

🟡 Neutral — the rate increase is offset by the BTC rebound

The main change over the past 24 hours is that yields have noticeably risen: 10-year Treasuries 4.21% (+6 bps vs. yesterday), 2-year 3.64% (+7 bps), real rates are also higher (1.85%, +3 bps). Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions, this keeps financial conditions tight, although the dollar did not strengthen today, and the overall level of anxiety remains elevated (VIX 24.23 — one of the highest readings over the past 90 days). Today’s focus is the PCE release: it can quickly shift Fed expectations ahead of the meeting in 5 days.

Crypto, meanwhile, surprised with resilience: BTC bounced to 71,332 (+2.8% over the past 24 hours), but sentiment remains near “extreme fear” (15), meaning the rise so far looks more like short covering and cautious accumulation than a confident reversal. An important nuance — demand via ETFs has cooled: daily inflows fell to $54 million (from $115 million yesterday), and the weekly total inflows continue to compress; with a strong dollar over the week and rising rates, this increases the risk that without a return of more powerful inflows, BTC will move in bursts and remain sensitive to news on Iran.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) PCE today: the reaction of yields matters more than the number itself — a sharp jump in rates will quickly bring pressure back on BTC.
2) Inflows into BTC ETFs: without an acceleration in demand, the rebound may “run out of steam” near current levels.
3) The 70k zone for BTC and dollar dynamics: a downside break amid a strong dollar will increase the chance of a sharp acceleration in the decline.