Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 14.03.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS AND RATES ARE COMPRESSING RISK
🔴 Negative — yields and anxiety have risen, the market is nervous.
The main shift of the day is a sharp tightening of financial conditions: the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.27% (about +6 bps vs. yesterday), 2-year — to 3.76% (+12 bps), real yield is also higher (1.89%). Against this backdrop, the VIX jumped to 27.29 (+12.6% for the day), which looks like a direct reaction to the escalation around Iran and risks to oil/logistics. The dollar, meanwhile, did not move on the day, but has strengthened noticeably over the week — this keeps pressure on all risk assets.
Crypto is holding up better than one might expect in such a backdrop: BTC around 71k and still up on the week, but the intraday impulse has cooled (down over 24 hours). A positive touch — daily inflows into BTC ETFs accelerated to $180 million (vs. $54 million yesterday), however the weekly pace of inflows has noticeably sagged, meaning there is no устойчивого “institutional acceleration” yet. Sentiment remains in the zone of pronounced fear (16), and the rise in BTC dominance hints at a defensive rotation out of altcoins.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) The Fed decision in 4 days: the market clearly believes less in near-term easing — this is key for yields and BTC.
2) Dynamics of the VIX and real yields: holding the VIX above 25 usually interferes with crypto continuing to rise.
3) Inflows into BTC ETFs: it is important whether daily inflows can turn into a sustained weekly series.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.49 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.27% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.76% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.89% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.43% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 27.29 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.51% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.87% | +0.04% |
| BTC Price | $71,039 | +0.35% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.41% | -146.07% |
| BTC Return 7d | 4.36% | +25.29% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 50.31% | -11.78% |
| Fear & Greed | 16 | +6.67% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.65% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 838.19% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.43% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,807.69% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 180.33% | +234.75% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 190.67% | -59.61% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 91.83% | +1.50% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | CPI YoY | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Mar 11 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.18 |
| Mar 12 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.75 |
| Mar 13 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.10 | 3.00 |