Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 01.05.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS AND YIELDS ARE PRESSURING, BTC IS HOLDING UP
🟡 Neutral — BTC rebound amid tightening conditions
The main shift of the day is the rise in yields: 10-year Treasuries climbed to 4.42% (from 4.36%), 2-year — to 3.92% (from 3.84%), and the real yield — to 1.96% (from 1.92%). Against the backdrop of the geopolitical agenda around Iran and overall nervousness, this looks like a tightening of financial conditions; the VIX also rose to 18.81 (from 17.83), although it remains below 20 — the stock market is not yet pricing in full-blown stress. The dollar is unchanged on the day, but has moderately strengthened over the week.
Crypto surprised with resilience: BTC gained about 2% over the day to 77,010, partially recouping the week’s drawdown (now about -0.9% over 7 days). Crowd sentiment worsened (fear and greed index 26, even deeper in the fear zone), but this rather speaks to the fragility of the rebound. A positive touch — the daily flow into BTC ETFs returned to positive (+$14.8 million after -$137.8 million), however the weekly total is still modest (+$97.6 million), meaning there is still no sign of a stable institutional “shoulder.” Compared to yesterday’s narrative, the market is still vulnerable due to high rates, but in the short term a foundation for stabilization has appeared if yields stop rising.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC reaction to the 77–77.5k zone: holding will confirm stabilization, a breakdown will bring back the scenario of a continued correction.
2) Dynamics of yields and the real rate: further rise usually quickly cools demand for risk.
3) Flows into BTC ETFs: what’s needed is not a one-off “plus,” but a series of inflow days so that the rebound does not turn out to be technical.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.73 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.42% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.92% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.96% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 18.81 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.50% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.23% | +0.15% |
| BTC Price | $77,010 | +1.08% |
| BTC Return 24h | 2.05% | +454.05% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.90% | +65.65% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 37.90% | +8.53% |
| Fear & Greed | 26 | -10.34% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.70% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 1,005.97% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 8.26% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.69% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,700.68% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 14.76% | +110.71% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 97.61% | +3.07% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 100.53% | +1.27% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | — | — |
| Apr 30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.20 | 3.00 |