Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 02.05.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS IS NOISY, BUT RISK IS BACK
🟢 Positive — fear has eased, and ETFs provided demand
The main change of the day is a noticeable calming on the “fear” front: VIX fell to 16.89 (from 18.81 yesterday), and the 2-year Treasury yield pulled back to 3.88% (from 3.92%). Against this backdrop, despite the tough geopolitical agenda around oil and Iran, overall risk appetite looks better; the dollar, meanwhile, did not move over the day, but over the week remains moderately stronger.
In crypto, the key is a sharp reversal in institutional demand: daily inflows into BTC ETFs are around $630 million (after ~$15 million yesterday) and assets under management rose to $103.78 billion. BTC is holding around $78.2k and is back to a small plus on the week, while BTC dominance remains very high — the market still prefers “quality” over alts. Compared to yesterday’s state, this is an important shift: weak ETF support has been replaced by strong support, which reduces vulnerability to another spike in rates, although the geopolitical premium can bring back nervousness at any moment.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Sustainability of inflows into BTC ETFs: one strong day matters, but the series decides.
2) The market’s reaction to geopolitical news on Iran/oil: this is the main source of sudden “fear” spikes.
3) Labor market data on May 8 (NFP): strong figures could push yields up again.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.73 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.40% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.88% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.94% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 16.89 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.52% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.49% | -0.02% |
| BTC Price | $78,150 | +0.02% |
| BTC Return 24h | 1.48% | -41.96% |
| BTC Return 7d | 0.66% | -34.00% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 36.80% | +2.91% |
| Fear & Greed | 39 | +50.00% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.70% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 981.93% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.61% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.69% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,717.46% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 629.73% | +4,166.46% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 391.52% | +301.11% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 103.78% | +3.23% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | — | — |
| Apr 30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.20 | 3.00 |