Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 09.05.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS IS NOISY, THE MARKET IS HOLDING UP
🟡 Neutral — yields have ticked up, but there’s no panic
The main change of the day — yields have risen: 10-year Treasuries 4.41% (from 4.36% yesterday), 2-year 3.92% (from 3.87%). Against the backdrop of news around Iran, this looks like a slight tightening of financial conditions, but without a mass flight from risk: the dollar is flat (DXY 118.39), and the VIX is low (17.08) — the stock market is not yet pricing in acute stress.
Crypto took this backdrop calmly: BTC is holding around 80.4k and gained about 0.9% over the day. An important nuance — daily flows in BTC ETFs remain negative (-$146 million), though better than yesterday; at the same time, weekly inflow is still strong (about +$1.27 billion), and systemic liquidity has noticeably increased over the week (about +2%) — that’s what’s keeping the market afloat. Compared with yesterday’s narrative, vulnerability to macro surprises hasn’t gone away, but after a strong NFP the focus shifts to inflation: CPI is in 3 days, and it is precisely it that can “wake up” rates and BTC.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) CPI May 12: the reaction of yields is more important than the headline itself.
2) BTC ETF flows: whether the weekly inflow can offset the daily outflows.
3) Geopolitics (US–Iran): any spike in tensions can quickly lift the VIX and hit risk assets.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.39 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.41% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.92% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.96% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 17.08 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.49% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.14% | -0.12% |
| BTC Price | $80,374 | +0.32% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.92% | +187.50% |
| BTC Return 7d | 2.85% | -1.72% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.16% | -9.58% |
| Fear & Greed | 38 | — |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.71% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 877.76% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.79% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.69% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,830.95% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -145.65% | +47.51% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 1,267.24% | -0.62% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 106.61% | -0.15% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 65.00 | 185.00 |