Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 08.05.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS IS NOISY, BUT RATES ARE EASING
🟡 Neutral — liquidity is growing, but demand via ETFs has dipped
The main change of the day is a noticeable decline in yields: 10-year Treasuries fell to 4.36% (from 4.43% yesterday), 2-year — to 3.87% (from 3.93%). This slightly eases financial conditions and helps risk assets, although the geopolitical backdrop (Iran/energy market and US–China trade rhetoric) remains a source of sharp moves. The dollar index is unchanged, VIX is also at a low level (17.39) — the stock market is not pricing in stress yet.
In crypto, the picture is mixed: systemic liquidity has noticeably increased over the week (about +2%), but at the same time BTC-ETF saw a significant daily outflow (-$277.5m), and total ETF assets fell to $106.77bn (from $108.76bn). BTC is holding around 79.6k, but daily momentum is weaker (about -1.6%), and the “fear/greed” index cooled to 38 (from 47) — the market has become more cautious. Compared to yesterday’s narrative of a “pause ahead of NFP,” an important nuance has now been added: rates have already started to decline, but institutional demand on a daily horizon does not confirm the rise — this increases BTC’s sensitivity to today’s employment data.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) NFP today: the reaction of 2Y/10Y is more important than the headline — this will set the tone for BTC into the weekend.
2) BTC-ETF inflows/outflows: continued outflows while holding the price will be a signal of distribution “into strength.”
3) The 80k level for BTC and dollar stability: holding above/below amid the news will show who controls the market.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.39 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.36% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.87% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.94% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 17.39 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.49% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.36% | -0.17% |
| BTC Price | $79,643 | -0.33% |
| BTC Return 24h | -1.62% | +8.47% |
| BTC Return 7d | 3.42% | -29.92% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.57% | -0.60% |
| Fear & Greed | 38 | -19.15% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.71% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 877.76% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.77% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.69% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,830.97% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -277.50% | -698.96% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 1,275.12% | -12.84% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 106.77% | -1.83% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 65.00 | 185.00 |