Fed Rate Cut Odds — What Prediction Markets Imply
What is Fed Rate Cut Odds right now?
As of 18.10.2026, Fed Rate Cut Odds is 0.50%.
Updated:
Fed Rate Cut Odds: key numbers
| Metric | Value | Where | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current value | 0.50% | Fed Rate Cut Odds | polymarket | |
| 30-day low | 0.30% | Fed Rate Cut Odds | polymarket | |
| 30-day high | 0.90% | Fed Rate Cut Odds | polymarket |
Value History
2026-07-07 — 2026-10-18 · data points: 104
Data table (rows: 90)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 0.50% |
| 2026-10-17 | 0.50% |
| 2026-10-16 | 0.50% |
| 2026-10-15 | 0.50% |
| 2026-10-14 | 0.50% |
| 2026-10-13 | 0.60% |
| 2026-10-12 | 0.70% |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.90% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0.50% |
| 2026-10-09 | 0.60% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0.60% |
| 2026-10-07 | 0.70% |
| 2026-10-06 | 0.60% |
| 2026-10-05 | 0.50% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.70% |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.30% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.70% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.70% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.70% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.70% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.70% |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.70% |
| 2026-09-26 | 0.70% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0.70% |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.80% |
| 2026-09-23 | 0.80% |
| 2026-09-22 | 0.80% |
| 2026-09-21 | 0.80% |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.90% |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.50% |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.90% |
| 2026-09-17 | 1.00% |
| 2026-09-16 | 1.20% |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.20% |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.30% |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.40% |
| 2026-09-12 | 0.40% |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.40% |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.60% |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.50% |
| 2026-09-08 | 0.60% |
| 2026-09-07 | 0.60% |
| 2026-09-06 | 0.50% |
| 2026-09-05 | 0.50% |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.50% |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.70% |
| 2026-09-02 | 0.70% |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.70% |
| 2026-08-31 | 0.80% |
| 2026-08-30 | 1.00% |
| 2026-08-29 | 1.20% |
| 2026-08-28 | 0.90% |
| 2026-08-27 | 1.70% |
| 2026-08-26 | 1.40% |
| 2026-08-25 | 1.50% |
| 2026-08-24 | 1.50% |
| 2026-08-23 | 1.70% |
| 2026-08-22 | 1.60% |
| 2026-08-21 | 1.30% |
| 2026-08-20 | 1.50% |
| 2026-08-19 | 1.50% |
| 2026-08-18 | 1.30% |
| 2026-08-17 | 1.20% |
| 2026-08-16 | 1.60% |
| 2026-08-15 | 1.70% |
| 2026-08-14 | 1.50% |
| 2026-08-13 | 1.80% |
| 2026-08-12 | 2.00% |
| 2026-08-11 | 2.10% |
| 2026-08-10 | 2.40% |
| 2026-08-09 | 2.80% |
| 2026-08-08 | 2.70% |
| 2026-08-07 | 2.80% |
| 2026-08-06 | 2.70% |
| 2026-08-05 | 2.50% |
| 2026-08-04 | 2.40% |
| 2026-08-03 | 2.00% |
| 2026-08-02 | 2.10% |
| 2026-08-01 | 3.00% |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.20% |
| 2026-07-30 | 4.00% |
| 2026-07-29 | 3.60% |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.30% |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.30% |
| 2026-07-26 | 0.50% |
| 2026-07-25 | 0.60% |
| 2026-07-24 | 0.50% |
| 2026-07-23 | 0.50% |
| 2026-07-22 | 0.50% |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.60% |
Latest AI Analysis
RETURN OF RISK APPETITE
🟢 Positive — Sentiment has improved, but fund demand still lags
Risk appetite is back: the Fear & Greed Index rose from 53 to 63, entering greed territory. Yet bitcoin funds have recorded outflows for a second consecutive day — sentiment is running ahead of demand. Reports of possible escalation around Iran and strikes between Russia and Ukraine keep the risk of higher energy prices and a flight to safety in play. Meanwhile, prediction markets put the probability of a US recession at just 7.5%. The sentiment turnaround is encouraging, but its staying power remains uncertain without renewed fund inflows.
WHAT TO WATCH
A Fear & Greed Index close above 63 on October 17 would confirm further improvement in sentiment. This test would not establish that fund demand has returned.
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