Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 03.05.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS IS NOISY, THE MARKET ISN’T JERKING AROUND
🟡 Neutral — macro is stable, crypto is on pause
The main thing today — the news backdrop on geopolitics remains tense, but markets are digesting it calmly: the dollar is holding steady, 10-year Treasuries yields are unchanged (4.4%), and the fear index VIX stays low (16.89) — traditional markets are not yet pricing in a sharp deterioration.
In crypto, movement has faded: BTC around $78,147 (24h -0.83%), while sentiment has noticeably improved — the fear/greed index rose to 47. Institutional demand looks strong based on daily inflows into BTC-ETFs (+$629.73M), but the weekly inflow dynamics are no longer as impressive, so it’s important for the market to confirm continued demand. Compared to yesterday, the picture is more about “holding” and testing support than about a new upward impulse.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC holding above the $77,000 zone — this is a test of strength after the rise.
2) Whether large inflows into BTC-ETFs continue: without them, the climb will be sluggish.
3) US labor market data (NFP) in 5 days — may shift rate expectations and re-energize the market.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.73 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.40% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.88% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.94% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 16.89 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.52% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.45% | -0.09% |
| BTC Price | $78,147 | -0.83% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.00% | -100.00% |
| BTC Return 7d | 0.47% | -70.44% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 36.81% | +5.23% |
| Fear & Greed | 47 | +20.51% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.70T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $981.93B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.61B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $22.69T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,717.46B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $629.73M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $391.52M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $103.78B | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.20 | 3.00 |