Core CPI (YoY) — Current Value & Crypto Market Impact

GEOPOLITICS PRESSURES, CRYPTO GIVES IN

🔴 Negative — ETF outflows and rising short rates.

The main shift of the day is a tightening of rate expectations on the short end: the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.05% (about +7 bps on the day), and the VIX ticked up to 16.05 (+4.8% on the day), which looks like a cautious move away from risk amid escalating geopolitics and talk of energy inflation. At the same time, the dollar is flat (118.88 unchanged), and 10-year and real yields are barely moving — meaning there is no panic in traditional markets, but the “uncertainty premium” is slightly returning.

In crypto, the hit continues: BTC fell to 66,393 (about -6.1% on the day; -10.7% for the week), volatility increased, and the sentiment index collapsed into the extreme fear zone (11). The key problem is unchanged and even intensifying: net outflows from BTC ETFs remain very large (-$519m on the day), and about -$2.53bn in total for the week; ETF assets under management slipped to $85bn (another -6.8% on the day). Against this backdrop, the decline in BTC dominance in a falling market looks like a sign of “position unwinding” broader than just bitcoin; compared with yesterday, the market has become more nervous, but the reason is the same — institutional exit via ETFs.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) Flows in BTC ETFs: a slowdown in outflows is the first signal that the sell-off is running out of steam.
2) Friday’s US labor market data (in 2 days): strong numbers could keep short rates high.
3) Reaction to geopolitics via the VIX and short yields: their further rise usually worsens risk appetite.