Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 16.02.2026
NeutralTHE MARKET IS TRYING TO HOLD ON, BUT NERVES ARE GIVING OUT
🟡 Neutral — macro is stable, but crypto is again weaker than expected
The main change over the day is not in macro, but in BTC dynamics: after yesterday’s plus it went back into the red on the day (-1.9%), and the weekly result worsened to -3.0%. At the same time, the external backdrop is barely moving: the dollar is unchanged, yields are also flat, and anxiety in the stock market remains elevated (VIX 20.82) — meaning there is still no “safety cushion” for risk.
In crypto the picture is mixed: the price is holding around 68.8k, but sentiment is still in the extreme fear zone (12), even though it has eased slightly compared to yesterday. Flows into BTC ETFs remain sluggish: a symbolic plus on the day (+$15M), while over the week there is still a noticeable minus (-$423M), which explains why attempts to hold the 70k level are not yet turning into a confident recovery. Compared to yesterday, the market has taken a step back from the idea of “stabilization” — rather a return to cautious sideways movement with the risk of another dip lower.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC reaction to the 70k zone: holding above will restore confidence, rejection will increase pressure.
2) Flows into BTC ETFs: a shift is needed from sluggish days to a series of noticeable inflows.
3) PCE index in 4 days: weaker than expected will support risk, stronger will bring back talk of tighter conditions.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.24 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.09% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.47% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.80% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.39% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.51% | — |
| VIX | 20.82 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.62% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.71% | -0.07% |
| BTC Price | $68,825 | -0.14% |
| BTC Return 24h | -1.90% | -31.94% |
| BTC Return 7d | -3.01% | -2.38% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 67.36% | -12.30% |
| Fear & Greed | 12 | +50.00% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.62% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 915.31% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.38% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.41% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,706.72% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 15.20% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -422.91% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 87.04% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13 | CPI YoY | 2.50 | 2.70 |