Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 01.03.2026
NeutralBTC BOUNCE AMID GEOPOLITICS
🟡 Neutral — macro is calm, but headline risk is high
The main change of the day is a sharp BTC bounce: the price rose from $63,857 to 67,317% (+5.4% vs. yesterday), while the dollar and rates are standing still (DXY unchanged; 10-year 4.02%, 2-year 3.42%). VIX at 18.63 — the stock market is not pricing in stress, and real yields are low versus recent months (TIPS 1.74%), which usually removes some of the pressure from risk assets.
In crypto, the bounce looks more like a “fear unwind” than a confirmed reversal: the fear/greed index is still in the extreme fear zone (14), and volatility increased versus yesterday. At the same time, the institutional picture is mixed: weekly inflows into BTC ETFs are strong (about +$710M), but the daily flow remains negative (about -$28M), meaning there is still no sign of a sustained return of demand “here and now.” Against this backdrop, geopolitical news (U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory risks) keeps the risk premium elevated: the market can easily swing either way on headlines.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC reaction to the 65,000–67,000$ zone: holding above makes the bounce more “alive,” a return below will increase nervousness again.
2) Daily BTC-ETF flows: a shift to stable inflows matters more than a one-off price bounce.
3) Middle East headlines: with VIX below 20, it is precisely the news that can become the trigger for a sharp move.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 117.99 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.02% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.42% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.74% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.39% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.51% | — |
| VIX | 18.63 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.60% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.09% | -0.57% |
| BTC Price | $67,317 | +0.14% |
| BTC Return 24h | 2.52% | +2.86% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.95% | +11.21% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 71.31% | -9.51% |
| Fear & Greed | 14 | +27.27% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.61% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 887.61% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 16.32% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,709.87% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -27.55% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 709.59% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 83.40% | — |