Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 16.03.2026
NeutralBTC RISES AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF WAR AND HIGH RATES
🟡 Neutral — crypto is strong, but the backdrop remains harsh
The main change of the day is the acceleration of BTC’s growth: the price rose to $73,857, and the weekly result reached +10%. At the same time, the macro picture has barely moved: the dollar is standing still (119.49), yields remain high (10-year 4.27%, 2-year 3.76%), and the anxiety index is still above 25 (27.29), meaning the “defensive mode” due to geopolitics hasn’t gone anywhere — markets have just stopped deteriorating for a while.
The crypto-specific picture looks like a “rally in spite of”: BTC dominance is rising (56.96%), meaning capital continues to hide in bitcoin rather than in altcoins. Sentiment has thawed slightly (the fear and greed index rose to 23), but this is still a zone of pronounced fear — fertile ground for sharp moves in both directions. The ETF picture is mixed: daily inflows are moderately positive (180 million), but the weekly total is modest (191 million) — for a sustainable continuation of growth, the market still needs more convincing confirmation of demand. Given the Fed decision in 2 days, the nearest risk is a sharp repricing of rate expectations amid war headlines.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Fed decision on March 18: the tone of the comments matters more than the rate itself.
2) Yield reaction: a further rise in 2-year yields will increase pressure on risk.
3) BTC holding above 70,000: losing the level will quickly bring back nervousness.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.49 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.27% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.76% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.89% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.43% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 27.29 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.51% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.96% | +0.11% |
| BTC Price | $73,858 | +1.48% |
| BTC Return 24h | 3.24% | +11.34% |
| BTC Return 7d | 10.00% | +1.32% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 49.66% | -10.28% |
| Fear & Greed | 23 | +53.33% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.65% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 838.19% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.43% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,807.69% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 180.33% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 190.67% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 91.83% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Mar 18 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | — | — |