Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 23.03.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS KEEPS THE MARKET ON EDGE
🟡 Neutral — macro is stable, but fear is deepening
The main thing today is not macro, but the risk backdrop: news about further escalation around Iran and tensions in the region are keeping investors cautious. At the same time, the key “levers” of risk conditions have barely moved: the dollar is flat (120.55), the 10-year yield is unchanged (4.25%), and the VIX remains elevated (24.06), although it has cooled noticeably over the week.
In crypto, the picture is mixed: intraday pressure has eased slightly (BTC’s daily decline has become smaller), but the week looks worse — BTC around $68,506 and about -8.3% over 7 days, and the fear and greed index has collapsed to 8 (extreme fear). Inflows into BTC ETFs over the week remain positive (about +$329M), but the daily flow is negative (about -$52M) — meaning there is still no stable “shoulder” from institutions. Compared to yesterday’s narrative, this is more of a confirmation of the correction: macro did not deteriorate, but psychological pressure intensified.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Geopolitical headlines: any spike in anxiety will quickly bring pressure back on BTC.
2) Dynamics of flows into BTC ETFs: a turn of daily values back into positive territory is needed for stabilization.
3) The $70,000 zone for BTC: a return above will simplify the rebound scenario; below — the risk of the correction continuing.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.55 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.25% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.79% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.88% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.43% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 24.06 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.46% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.25% | +0.04% |
| BTC Price | $68,506 | +0.31% |
| BTC Return 24h | -1.17% | +58.80% |
| BTC Return 7d | -7.25% | -17.69% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 51.91% | -12.21% |
| Fear & Greed | 8 | -20.00% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.66% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 853.05% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.82% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.44% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,802.03% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -52.11% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 329.38% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 90.30% | — |