Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 03.04.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS KEEPS THE MARKET ON EDGE
🟡 Neutral — liquidity has improved, but fear is extreme
Key over the past 24 hours — a pause in “war” trading and a spike in oil (+11%) amid tough US rhetoric on Iran: this keeps the market in caution mode. At the same time, financial conditions are not deteriorating: 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields are standing still (4.33% and 3.81%), and the VIX remains elevated but without a new rise (24.54). The dollar is still strong and near the highs of recent months, which in itself limits demand for risk.
In crypto, an important shift — outflows from BTC ETFs stopped for a day: the daily flow turned slightly positive (+$9m after -$174m yesterday), and overall liquidity in the system has noticeably increased (over the week +0.8%), helped by a decline in the Treasury’s account balance and a sharp drop in reverse repo. But the market still doesn’t “believe” in a reversal: the fear and greed index is back in the extreme fear zone (9), and BTC remains below yesterday’s key reference point of 70k and is still significantly lower over the month. Today’s main trigger is the NFP release: strong data may support the dollar and press BTC again, weak data — give a chance for a bounce.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) NFP today: the reaction of the dollar and yields is more important than the number itself.
2) Whether inflows into BTC ETFs continue after the “pause” in outflows.
3) BTC holding the 66–67k zone and an attempt to reclaim 70k as a signal that fear is starting to fade.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.89 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.33% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.81% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.02% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.43% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 24.54 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.52% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.07% | -0.04% |
| BTC Price | $66,622 | -0.59% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.45% | +127.95% |
| BTC Return 7d | -2.81% | -7.25% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 48.37% | -0.06% |
| Fear & Greed | 9 | -25.00% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.68% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 847.72% | -3.02% |
| Reverse Repo | 0.33% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.67% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,827.26% | +0.80% |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 8.99% | +105.17% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -366.54% | +18.56% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 86.22% | -1.70% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 56.00 | -92.00 |