Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 08.04.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS IS NOISY, BITCOIN IS RISING
🟡 Neutral — BTC is growing, but there is little confirmation of demand
The key change of the day is a sharp rise in BTC: about +4% over 24 hours to $71,589, while the macro backdrop has barely moved (the dollar and yields are in place, VIX around 24 — anxiety is moderate). Against this background, the geopolitical agenda remains the main source of sudden jerks: the news gives the market reasons either for relief or for renewed nervousness.
Within crypto, the picture is mixed: sentiment remains in the zone of pronounced fear (17 points), but is gradually improving. At the same time, daily flows into BTC ETFs turned negative (-$159M after an inflow the day before), and assets under management declined — this looks like profit-taking on the rise and makes the move more fragile. Liquidity in the system has increased slightly over the week and remains high by the standards of recent months, which supports the market, but over the next 1–2 days the key will be PCE and then CPI: they can quickly change expectations on rates and the tone on risk.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Tomorrow PCE and the day after tomorrow CPI: the reaction of the dollar and yields is more important than the numbers themselves.
2) Flows in BTC ETFs: continued outflows on a rise — a signal for caution.
3) The $70,000 zone for BTC: holding above turns the rebound into a more sustainable impulse.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.66 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.34% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.84% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.98% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.43% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 24.17 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.50% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.76% | -0.11% |
| BTC Price | $71,589 | +0.26% |
| BTC Return 24h | 3.98% | +9.34% |
| BTC Return 7d | 4.93% | +3.14% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 40.32% | -2.02% |
| Fear & Greed | 17 | +54.55% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.68% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 847.72% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 15.35% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.67% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,812.24% | -0.26% |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -159.05% | -133.75% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 109.14% | +12.55% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 88.71% | -1.72% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.22 |
| Apr 9 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| Apr 9 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.87 |
| Apr 10 | CPI YoY | 3.40 | 2.40 |