Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 05.06.2026
NeutralTARIFF NOISE AND HAWKISH RATES
🔴 Negative — real yields are rising, BTC accelerates its decline.
The main shift of the day is a strengthening of the “hawkishness” of financial conditions: the real yield on 10-year securities rose to 2.11% (+4 bps on the day), while short and long rates remain at elevated levels (2Y 4.08%, 10Y 4.49%). Against this backdrop, net liquidity slipped slightly (5834.7 bn, -0.64% on the day), and the geopolitical backdrop is being supplemented by a new round of tariff rhetoric — for risk assets this is an unpleasant mix.
Crypto continues to live its own life: BTC fell to $61,878 (about -3.3% over 24 hours; -16% for the week), with sentiment in “extreme fear” (12) and volatility ticking up (34.3%). An important detail: the daily flow through BTC-ETFs almost returned to zero (+$3 mn after -$397 mn yesterday), but the weekly total is still very heavy (-$2.48 bn) and assets under management are declining ($80.4 bn). Compared to yesterday’s narrative, this is not a reversal, but only the first attempt to stabilize flows; the nearest risk is the reaction to NFP today.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) NFP today: strong data could push yields higher and increase pressure on BTC.
2) BTC-ETF flows: whether at least a neutral/positive daily flow holds for several sessions in a row.
3) Liquidity: whether the drawdown continues amid TGA growth and what happens to yields after the data.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.88 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.49% | +0.67% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.08% | +0.74% |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.11% | +1.93% |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.78% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.74% | — |
| VIX | 16.06 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.41% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.03% | +0.38% |
| BTC Price | $61,878 | -2.82% |
| BTC Return 24h | -3.27% | -85.80% |
| BTC Return 7d | -16.01% | -21.10% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.27% | -3.71% |
| Fear & Greed | 12 | — |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.71% | +0.11% |
| Treasury General Account | 875.71% | +5.47% |
| Reverse Repo | 1.12% | -45.59% |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.80% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,834.67% | -0.64% |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 3.05% | +100.77% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -2,484.11% | +11.94% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 80.40% | -2.93% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 85.00 | 179.00 |