Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 07.06.2026
Risk OffLOUD GEOPOLITICS, CALM MARKET
🟡 Neutral — BTC rebound amid prior pressure.
In the news backdrop, there has been more geopolitical noise (the tariff agenda and reports on the Middle East), but in prices this is still barely readable: the dollar is unchanged, yields are at high levels (10-year at 4.47% with almost no shift over the week), and the fear index VIX remains very low (15.4). That is, the external market has not switched into risk-off mode — rather, it is waiting for the next data.
In crypto it’s more noticeable: BTC added about 2.5% over the day (62,096), but the weekly picture remains heavy (about -16%), and volatility has increased. The main headwind has not disappeared: there is a continued steady outflow from BTC ETFs (about -$326 million for the day and more than -$2.1 billion over 7 days), while sentiment on the fear and greed index is in the extreme fear zone (12) — it looks like capitulation conditions. Compared to yesterday, the market looks a bit more “alive” due to the rebound, but without a reversal in flows this so far looks more like a breather within the correction.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) CPI June 10: if inflation comes out above expectations, the market may again reprice the rate path.
2) BTC-ETF flows: a series of neutral/positive days is more important than a one-off price rebound.
3) BTC level around 61,878: holding/losing this zone will show whether this is stabilization or just a rebound.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.88 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.47% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.05% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.11% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.78% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.74% | — |
| VIX | 15.40 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.42% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.05% | — |
| BTC Price | $62,096 | +2.52% |
| BTC Return 24h | 2.23% | +225.99% |
| BTC Return 7d | -16.03% | +10.45% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 35.63% | -1.87% |
| Fear & Greed | 12 | — |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.71% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 875.71% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.76% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.80% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,835.03% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -325.69% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -2,076.38% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 75.12% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 85.00 | 179.00 |