Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 29.06.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICAL RISK
🔴 Negative — fear deepened while BTC failed yesterday’s stabilization test.
BTC is still just under 60.04k and Fear & Greed is at 12, the 28th straight day in fear. Yesterday I expected the correction to hold if BTC stayed below that line with fear under 20 — got exactly that, so the base case remains correction, not stabilization.
The driver is now less macro data and more geopolitical risk: multiple high-impact US-Iran strike headlines hit before the first full US session, while BTC’s link to equities is unusually tight. The last ETF update also still shows a seven-session outflow streak; because that print is not fresh, treat it as an unresolved overhang, not today’s flow.
The only constructive point is positioning: extreme fear often appears near exhaustion, and similar fear-plus-weekly-loss setups later recovered in the one-month window. But the tape still looks like de-risking: stablecoin supply is falling, DeFi TVL is soft, and BTC dominance is falling together with BTC rather than signaling healthy rotation.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC: a move above 61.26k while Fear & Greed rises above 15 would be the first failed-breakdown signal; BTC below 60.04k with fear at or below 12 keeps capitulation active.
2) Stablecoins: stablecoin market cap below 307.1bn together with USDT below 0.9983 would confirm cash stress; holding both current levels would weaken the de-risking signal.
3) NFP: the jobs print due in three days is expected at 114k. A softer print with BTC above 61.26k would support relief; a stronger print while BTC is below 60.04k keeps macro pressure alive.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.40 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.40% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.09% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.19% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 4.17% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.82% | — |
| VIX | 18.89 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.31% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 55.64% | +0.04% |
| BTC Price | $59,727 | +1.28% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.52% | +73.33% |
| BTC Return 7d | -6.70% | +10.31% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 43.72% | +2.13% |
| Fear & Greed | 12 | -33.33% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.74% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 918.70% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 6.43% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 23.05% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,810.48% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -444.51% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -1,791.83% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 72.82% | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,354.02 | — |
| DeFi TVL | 70.20% | +0.29% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | 307.10% | -0.07% |
| USDT Peg | 1.00% | -0.03% |