Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 04.07.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS
🔴 Neutral — BTC has done its part, fund confirmation is still frozen.
Geopolitics is the driver: the Kyiv attack and Europe-China trade-war risk add headline risk, while U.S. markets are closed. Yesterday I expected BTC above $60.04k plus another positive BTC-fund flow to confirm recovery; BTC is still above that line near $62.6k, but fund data has not updated, so the call is only half-proven.
The split is clean. Soft jobs data still gives the Fed-relief story oxygen, and crypto internals are not breaking: DeFi TVL is rising over the week and BTC volatility is contained. Against that, the last dollar and real-yield prints remain restrictive, stablecoin supply is still shrinking, and Fear & Greed is in fear for the 33rd straight day.
That streak is the useful hook: price is improving while sentiment refuses to follow. The closest analogs were mixed — enough to keep this a recovery test, not a confirmed turn.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC above $60.04k and next BTC-fund daily flow above zero → recovery confirmation; BTC below $60.04k with a fresh outflow → yesterday's signal fails.
2) Stablecoin market cap at or above $305.5B and DeFi TVL at or above $74.2B → internal liquidity holds; both below those lines → caution rises.
3) Next week's Treasury auctions: if the 10Y reopens above 4.48% while BTC is below $60.04k → macro pressure is back; 10Y below 4.48% with BTC above $60.04k → cleaner risk backdrop.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.89 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.48% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.17% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.25% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 4.17% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.82% | — |
| VIX | 16.59 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.31% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 55.63% | -0.05% |
| BTC Price | $62,603 | +0.11% |
| BTC Return 24h | 1.97% | +10.67% |
| BTC Return 7d | 4.08% | -4.00% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 37.33% | -3.79% |
| Fear & Greed | 22 | +4.76% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.72% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 880.24% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 2.18% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 23.05% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,842.19% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 221.72% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -971.15% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 74.37% | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,483.24 | — |
| DeFi TVL | 74.20% | -0.54% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | 305.50% | — |
| USDT Peg | 1.00% | +0.01% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 114.00 | 129.00 |