Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 07.10.2026
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🟡 Neutral — Optimism on ETH contrasts with weakening BTC expectations
Risk appetite is strengthening, but crypto expectations are diverging. Prediction markets put the probability of ETH reaching $2,800 at 52%, up from 13.5%, while the probability of BTC reaching $100,000 has fallen from 10.5% to 6.5%. Optimism is concentrated in ETH—it is too early to call this a broad-based upswing. The macro backdrop is not standing in the way: US recession odds are priced at 6.5%, suggesting this risk is not currently a major constraint on demand.
WHAT TO WATCH
A BTC close above $84,082 on October 8 would confirm improving price momentum. A move back above the current price would test whether optimism is spreading beyond ETH.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 121.38 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.31% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.84% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.95% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 15.52 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.47% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.79% | +0.10% |
| BTC Price | $84,082 | -1.69% |
| BTC Return 24h | -1.77% | -293.33% |
| BTC Return 7d | 1.07% | -54.08% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.89% | -8.38% |
| Fear & Greed | 71 | -2.74% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.74T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $948.67B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.41B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,793.91B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$89.90M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $120.12M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $110.77B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,818.93 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $94.90B | -1.56% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $309.00B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9998 | -0.02% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.60% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 6.50% | -38.10% |
| ETH ≥ $2,800 | 52.00% | +5,677.78% |
| Altseason Barometer | 30 | +3.45% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.87T | -1.73% |
| US Recession Odds | 6.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | FOMC Minutes | — | — |