Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 03.02.2026
NeutralTHE MARKET TAKES A PAUSE AHEAD OF NFP
🟡 Neutral — macro is stable, crypto is digesting the drawdown
Today is almost unchanged: the dollar is standing still (DXY 117.9), yields too (10-year 4.26%), and the VIX remains below 20 (17.44) — the stock market is not pricing in stress. But an important nuance in the backdrop: the dollar is at one of the lowest levels of the last 90 days, so any “strong” employment data can quickly trigger its rebound and worsen conditions for risk assets.
Crypto so far looks like a market that is “chewing through the hit”: BTC around $78,040 (about -11% for the week), while sentiment remains in the zone of pronounced fear (Fear & Greed 17). The institutional picture is mixed: for the day, inflows into BTC-ETFs are strong (+$561.9M), but for the week there is still a noticeable outflow (about -$1.03B) — this looks like an attempt to catch the bottom amid ongoing unloading by some big money. Compared to yesterday, changes are minimal, so the main focus shifts to the reaction of the dollar and yields to NFP.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) NFP February 6: strong data may strengthen the dollar and increase pressure on BTC.
2) BTC behavior at $77,000: holding the level is a signal of stabilization after the sell-off.
3) BTC-ETF flows: it’s important whether the daily inflow becomes a series rather than a one-off spike.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 117.90 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.26% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.52% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.90% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| VIX | 17.44 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.74% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 57.68% | +0.19% |
| BTC Price | $78,040 | -0.79% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.77% | -60.71% |
| BTC Return 7d | -10.99% | -3.39% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 38.81% | -18.59% |
| Fear & Greed | 17 | +21.43% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.59% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 923.04% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 10.42% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.41% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,654.14% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 561.89% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -1,029.41% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 100.38% | — |