Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 04.02.2026
NeutralDOUBLE HIT: RATES UP, CRYPTO DOWN
🔴 Negative — institutional outflows and rising real yields.
The main change of the day — short and real rates moved up: the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 3.57% (about +5 bps on the day), the 10-year TIPS real yield — to 1.94% (+4 bps). At the same time, the VIX fell to 16.34 (the equity market is calm), and the dollar is unchanged, so the pressure on crypto right now looks not like “macro panic,” but a more targeted tightening of financial conditions via rates.
In crypto, deterioration continued: BTC slipped to $75,560 (about -3.2% on the day; already about -16% for the week), volatility increased, and the fear and greed index fell to 14 — the extreme fear zone. Most important — the reversal of flows in BTC ETFs: after yesterday’s inflows, today there is an outflow of about -$272 million, and for the week in total about -$1.20 billion; against this backdrop, ETF assets under management fell to $97.0 billion. Compared with yesterday’s “expectation of an impulse from NFP,” the market has become more vulnerable: institutions are not supporting the price, and any NFP surprise can amplify the move.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) NFP February 6: the reaction of the dollar and yields is the main trigger for the next surge.
2) Flows into BTC ETFs: at least a return to stable inflows is needed, otherwise drawdowns will be “pushed through” more easily.
3) The $77,000 zone for BTC: a return above is a sign of stabilization, holding below is a risk of continued decline.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 117.90 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.29% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.57% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.94% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| VIX | 16.34 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.72% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 57.39% | +0.37% |
| BTC Price | $75,560 | +0.22% |
| BTC Return 24h | -3.40% | +19.05% |
| BTC Return 7d | -16.15% | -4.87% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 40.08% | -18.73% |
| Fear & Greed | 14 | -17.65% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.59% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 923.04% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 1.79% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.41% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,662.77% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -272.02% | -148.41% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -1,197.86% | -16.36% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 97.01% | -3.36% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 67.00 | 50.00 |