Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 09.02.2026
NeutralBTC BOUNCE AMID EXTREME FEAR
🟡 Neutral — there is a bounce, but there is no confirmation of demand
The main change over the past 24 hours — BTC rose by about 2.5% to $70,987, and the weekly decline has noticeably narrowed. At the same time, the macro picture has barely moved: the dollar is flat, 2-year and 10-year yields are slightly lower over the week (financial conditions are a bit softer), but the anxiety index remains elevated (VIX 21.77 and noticeably higher than a week ago) — the market is still nervous.
Within crypto, the bounce looks more like a reaction to “overdone” sentiment: the fear and greed index rose from 7 to 14, but this is still the extreme fear zone. The key problem hasn’t gone away — flows into BTC ETFs remain negative (about -$434M for the day and roughly -$2.0B for the week), meaning institutional demand is not yet confirming a reversal. BTC dominance has ticked up — on days like this, the market more often hides in a “more defensive” asset rather than pumping altcoins. Compared to yesterday’s narrative, this is a step toward stabilizing the price above 70k, but without an ETF reversal this remains a fragile bounce ahead of the data block on February 11–13.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC holding above 70,000: consolidation will reduce the risk of sharp wicks on news.
2) BTC ETF flows: even a shift toward neutralizing outflows will matter more than any intraday bounce.
3) February 11: CPI, employment, and large Treasury auctions — this can swing the dollar, yields, and risk appetite simultaneously.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 117.90 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.21% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.47% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.89% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| VIX | 21.77 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.74% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 57.17% | -0.03% |
| BTC Price | $70,987 | +0.03% |
| BTC Return 24h | 2.50% | +9.17% |
| BTC Return 7d | -6.38% | +20.35% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 67.54% | -13.02% |
| Fear & Greed | 14 | +100.00% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.61% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 908.77% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 3.11% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.41% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,694.02% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -434.15% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -2,036.43% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 80.76% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 67.00 | 50.00 |
| Feb 11 | CPI YoY | — | 2.70 |
| Feb 11 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 66.00 | 48.00 |
| Feb 11 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.17 |