Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 10.02.2026
NeutralTHE MARKET FLINCHES AHEAD OF CPI
🟡 Neutral — macro has calmed down, but crypto is still nervous
The main change of the day is a sharp decline in the stock market fear index (VIX 17.76 vs 21.77 yesterday): the external backdrop looks calmer, and yields and the dollar have barely moved. At the same time, systemic liquidity has moderately increased over the week, which usually lends a shoulder to risk assets, but against this backdrop the market often “freezes” in anticipation of tomorrow’s data.
In crypto, sentiment has worsened: the fear and greed index is back in extreme fear territory (9), and BTC’s weekly performance has slipped to -11.34%. A positive shift is that the daily flow into BTC ETFs has turned positive (+$371 million after yesterday’s outflow), however the weekly total for ETFs remains deeply negative (-$1.65 billion), meaning institutions overall are still de-risking. From yesterday’s scenario of a “nervous range around 70k” we have moved to a more fragile equilibrium: there is liquidity support, but without stabilization of ETF flows and the reaction to CPI, resilience may not be enough.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Tomorrow CPI and NFP: the reaction of the dollar and yields will set the tone for BTC for 24–48 hours.
2) BTC-ETF flows: it’s important whether inflows will hold after a one-off reversal.
3) The 70,000 level for BTC: holding/returning above it will be a marker that sellers are running out of steam.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.24 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.22% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.50% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.88% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| VIX | 17.76 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.72% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.91% | -0.05% |
| BTC Price | $69,801 | -0.76% |
| BTC Return 24h | -1.64% | -72.63% |
| BTC Return 7d | -11.34% | -6.78% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 67.45% | -13.14% |
| Fear & Greed | 9 | -35.71% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.61% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 908.77% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 1.31% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.41% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,695.82% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 371.15% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -1,645.63% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 89.43% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | CPI YoY | — | 2.70 |
| Feb 11 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 66.00 | 48.00 |
| Feb 11 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.17 |
| Feb 12 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.83 |