Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 14.02.2026

INFLATION IS COOLING, BUT NERVES REMAIN

🟡 Neutral — rates down, but VIX above 20

The main change is a “soft” CPI: inflation slowed (2.39% vs 2.65% yesterday), core is also lower (2.51% vs 2.65%). Against this backdrop, yields moved down: 10-year 4.09% (from 4.18%), 2-year 3.47% (from 3.52%), and real yield 1.8% (from 1.86%) — this usually makes life easier for risk assets. But there’s little calm: VIX jumped to 20.82 (from 17.65), meaning the market is still reacting nervously.

Crypto played back the easing of expectations: BTC rose to 68,771 (+3.63% on the day), but the picture remains fragile after a strong drawdown over the month (about -29%). Extreme fear hasn’t gone away (index 9), and outflows from BTC ETFs remain large (about -$410 mln per day; over 7 days about -$983 mln), while AUM fell to $82.86 bln (from $85.76 bln) — institutional demand is not yet confirming a reversal. Compared to yesterday’s narrative, sensitivity to inflation worked in favor, but without stabilization of ETF flows the rally risks remaining “on the news.”

WHAT TO WATCH

1) BTC reaction to the 70k zone: consolidation/rejection will show whether there is continuation of the impulse.
2) Dynamics of yields and VIX: if VIX holds above 20, any pullbacks will be sharper.
3) PCE in 6 days: if it confirms the slowdown, it could support BTC even with weak ETF flows.