Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 13.02.2026
NeutralRATE SKEW IS PRESSURING CRYPTO
🟡 Neutral — macro is calm, but institutions are cutting risk
The main change of the day is the rise in short rates: the yield on 2-year Treasuries rose to 3.52% (from 3.45% yesterday), and the 10Y–2Y spread narrowed to 0.66. At the same time, the dollar is flat (118.24), and the fear index in the stock market is low (VIX 17.65) — meaning there is no external panic, but financial conditions are becoming slightly tighter specifically through the “short end”.
In crypto, the picture is mixed: BTC is holding around 66.4k, weekly dynamics are back in the green (+2.37%), and volatility continues to decline (30-day — 64.84%). But sentiment is still in the extreme fear zone (9), and this is confirmed by a reversal of flows in BTC ETFs: outflow of -276 million for the day, and a noticeable negative has accumulated over the week (-845 million) — compared to yesterday’s almost neutral picture, this is a step back. From yesterday’s “pause before CPI” scenario, the market has moved to a more nervous ожидание: the reaction to CPI today will decide whether the current stabilization becomes a base for a rebound or remains fragile.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) CPI today: a downside surprise can quickly improve the tone, an upside one will increase pressure via rates.
2) Flows in BTC ETFs: at least a return to zero/inflows is needed, otherwise the rise will be “without fuel”.
3) The 70k level for BTC: a return above is a signal that demand is dominating again.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.24 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.18% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.52% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.86% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.65% | — |
| VIX | 17.65 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.66% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.49% | +0.12% |
| BTC Price | $66,359 | +0.21% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.94% | +45.98% |
| BTC Return 7d | 2.37% | -36.97% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 64.84% | -13.12% |
| Fear & Greed | 9 | +80.00% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.62% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 915.31% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 2.84% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.41% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,704.25% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -276.30% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -844.71% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 85.76% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | CPI YoY | — | 2.70 |
| Feb 11 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 66.00 | 48.00 |
| Feb 11 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.17 |
| Feb 12 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.83 |
| Feb 13 | CPI YoY | 2.50 | 2.70 |