Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 13.02.2026

RATE SKEW IS PRESSURING CRYPTO

🟡 Neutral — macro is calm, but institutions are cutting risk

The main change of the day is the rise in short rates: the yield on 2-year Treasuries rose to 3.52% (from 3.45% yesterday), and the 10Y–2Y spread narrowed to 0.66. At the same time, the dollar is flat (118.24), and the fear index in the stock market is low (VIX 17.65) — meaning there is no external panic, but financial conditions are becoming slightly tighter specifically through the “short end”.

In crypto, the picture is mixed: BTC is holding around 66.4k, weekly dynamics are back in the green (+2.37%), and volatility continues to decline (30-day — 64.84%). But sentiment is still in the extreme fear zone (9), and this is confirmed by a reversal of flows in BTC ETFs: outflow of -276 million for the day, and a noticeable negative has accumulated over the week (-845 million) — compared to yesterday’s almost neutral picture, this is a step back. From yesterday’s “pause before CPI” scenario, the market has moved to a more nervous ожидание: the reaction to CPI today will decide whether the current stabilization becomes a base for a rebound or remains fragile.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) CPI today: a downside surprise can quickly improve the tone, an upside one will increase pressure via rates.
2) Flows in BTC ETFs: at least a return to zero/inflows is needed, otherwise the rise will be “without fuel”.
3) The 70k level for BTC: a return above is a signal that demand is dominating again.