Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 13.04.2026

GEOPOLITICS IS NOISY, BITCOIN IS HOLDING UP

🟡 Neutral — strong liquidity offsets fear and headlines

The main topic of the day is geopolitical tension and talk of “long” tight policy: the bond market is again sensitive to inflation, but in the numbers today there are no sharp shifts — the dollar is flat (120.66), 10-year and 2-year yields are also unchanged on the day (4.29% and 3.78%), and the equity fear index remains calm (VIX 19.49, noticeably lower than a week ago). At the same time, systemic liquidity has noticeably increased over the week (about +2%), which creates a cushion for risk assets.

In crypto, the picture is mixed: BTC is holding around $70,918, but sentiment has worsened — the fear and greed index fell to 12 (extreme fear). Daily dynamics have become less negative, however the weekly growth rate has noticeably cooled (1.71% versus 6.63% yesterday), which looks like the impulse running out after the rebound. Support is coming from institutions: inflows into BTC-ETFs are about $240M for the day and about $622M for 7 days — this helps the market “digest” alarming headlines, but does not eliminate the risk of sharp moves on news.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) Holding the $70,000 zone for BTC: losing the level will quickly bring back pressure.
2) Further dynamics of inflows into BTC-ETFs: maintaining inflows is the key to resilience.
3) Geopolitical headlines and the reaction of the dollar/yields: if they go up, it will get harder for crypto.