Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 15.04.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS DAMPENS MOMENTUM, LIQUIDITY SUPPORTS
🟡 Neutral — strong liquidity, but a nervous news backdrop.
Today’s picture is more about a pause after a surge: the dollar and nominal yields have barely moved, while the real yield on 10-year TIPS edged down slightly (1.92% vs. 1.95% yesterday) — a mild support for risk assets. At the same time, the market is keeping geopolitics in mind (Iran, tariffs, talk of an oil spike), so risk appetite isn’t accelerating, even despite improved financial conditions.
In crypto, the main shift is a sharp cooling of short-term dynamics: yesterday’s strong daily rise was replaced by an almost zero result over 24 hours (-0.09%), and weekly returns fell to 3.96% (from 9.04% yesterday) — a typical sign of momentum “deflating” without an obvious capitulation. Support, however, hasn’t gone anywhere: systemic liquidity over the week has increased noticeably and remains among the highest of the last 90 days, and inflows into BTC ETFs have accelerated (about $411.5m for the day; about $906.7m over 7 days). Sentiment remains in the zone of pronounced fear (23), which leaves room for sharp moves on news; compared to yesterday, the market has shifted from an upswing mode to a more cautious sideways movement around 74k.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC holding above the 74–75k zone: without this, the rise will remain a “liquidity-driven spurt.”
2) Headlines on Iran/oil and trade restrictions: they are now the main trigger for moving away from risk.
3) The dynamics of inflows into BTC ETFs: sustained inflows with BTC moving sideways will be a signal of hidden demand.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.86 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.30% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.78% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.92% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 19.12 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.52% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 57.33% | -0.05% |
| BTC Price | $74,330 | +0.32% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.09% | +88.16% |
| BTC Return 7d | 3.96% | +13.14% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 40.38% | -4.61% |
| Fear & Greed | 23 | +9.52% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.69% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 748.38% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.31% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.67% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,945.22% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 411.50% | +241.36% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 906.70% | +79.83% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 96.56% | +2.17% |