Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 20.04.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS IN THE HEADLINES, THE MARKET IS HOLDING UP
🟡 Neutral — liquidity and ETFs are supporting, but spike risks.
The main topic of the day is geopolitics around Iran and oil risks: headlines increase the likelihood of sharp intraday moves, but there is no panic in the numbers. The dollar is standing still (118.86 unchanged over the week), the 10-year yield has barely changed (4.32%), and equity anxiety is low (VIX 17.94), meaning financial conditions overall are not deteriorating.
For crypto, the picture remains “support from below”: systemic liquidity remains high, and institutional demand is not running out of steam — inflows into BTC ETFs are about $664 million for the day and about $1.59 billion for the week. At the same time, BTC is rather treading water around 74.6k: the weekly growth pace has cooled slightly, and volatility has ticked up a bit; the fear/greed index rose to 29, but this is still a zone of caution. Compared with yesterday, the thesis does not change: basically the market is holding a pause, and the main risk is sudden geopolitical headlines.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Oil and geopolitical news: they can quickly raise anxiety and hit risk assets.
2) BTC ETF inflows/outflows: maintaining large inflows is key to holding the price.
3) The 75,000 level for BTC and 118.9 for DXY: a breakout up/down will set the tone for the coming days.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.86 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.32% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.78% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.93% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 17.94 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.54% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 57.43% | +0.09% |
| BTC Price | $74,581 | +0.60% |
| BTC Return 24h | -1.45% | +35.27% |
| BTC Return 7d | 5.16% | +13.16% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 40.08% | -5.52% |
| Fear & Greed | 29 | +7.41% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.71% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 751.35% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.14% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.67% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,954.21% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 663.91% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 1,594.96% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 101.45% | — |