Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 21.04.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS IS NOISY, CONDITIONS FOR RISK ARE SOFTER
🟡 Neutral — macro is easing, but geo headlines keep risk in place.
The key change of the day — the dollar noticeably weakened and yields dipped: DXY fell to 118.08, 10-year — to 4.26%, 2-year — to 3.71%, real yield is also slightly lower (1.9%). Against this backdrop, financial conditions look softer for crypto; at the same time, VIX remains low (17.48), meaning the stock market is not yet pricing in serious stress. But the geopolitical backdrop around Iran and shipping adds “tail” risks: sharp headlines can quickly change sentiment.
In crypto the picture is mixed: BTC is holding near 75.8k (+2.3% for the week, but the day is almost flat), and institutional demand remains steady on the week (about $1.48 bn over 7 days), although daily ETF inflows have noticeably cooled (about $238 mn after $664 mn yesterday) and AUM has slightly declined. BTC dominance remains very high (57.6%) — this is a sign that the market still prefers “quality” and it’s harder for altcoins to catch up. Compared to yesterday, the main shift has been macro easing (dollar/yields down), but the ETF impulse on the daily horizon is no longer as strong.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Geopolitical headlines and oil: this is the main risk of a sudden jump in anxiety.
2) Inflows into BTC-ETFs: a return to levels “like yesterday” or further cooling matters.
3) Preparation for the Fed and PCE next week: the market may “squeeze” the range in advance and then sharply break out of it.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.08 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.26% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.71% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.90% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 17.48 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.55% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 57.59% | -0.10% |
| BTC Price | $75,815 | -0.24% |
| BTC Return 24h | 1.65% | -34.00% |
| BTC Return 7d | 1.91% | +7.30% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 40.17% | -5.10% |
| Fear & Greed | 33 | +13.79% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.71% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 751.35% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.50% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.67% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,953.84% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 238.37% | -64.10% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 1,475.17% | -7.51% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 100.33% | -1.10% |