Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 25.04.2026

GEOPOLITICS KEEPS THE MARKET ON EDGE

🟡 Neutral — BTC is holding, but conditions are fragile

The main backdrop of the day is geopolitical uncertainty around the conflict and energy markets: it supports caution, although by “classic” macro there is almost silence. The dollar is flat (118.08), the 10-year yield is unchanged (4.34%), but the short end has risen: 2-year at 3.83% (+4 bps vs yesterday), which adds hawkishness to expectations for Fed policy ahead of the April 29 meeting.

In crypto the picture is mixed: BTC is holding around 77.6k (+0.36% on the day), but the weekly momentum has noticeably faded (the 7-day gain shrank to 0.63% from 3.9% yesterday). The most important thing is the sharp cooling of daily inflows into BTC ETFs: only $14m versus $223m yesterday, while the weekly total is still strong ($1.51bn). Against the backdrop of continued outflow of systemic liquidity over the week and a record-high BTC dominance (58.1% — one of the highest readings in 90 days), the market looks “narrow”: it is holding on BTC, and there is still little breadth for a confident continuation of the rally.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) The Fed meeting in 4 days: the reaction of 2Y yields and the dollar is more important than the decision itself.
2) BTC-ETF inflows/outflows: a закрепление below ~$50–100m per day will increase the risk of a pullback.
3) BTC level 77,500: holding — a pause scenario, losing it — acceleration of the decline in a thin market.