Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 07.05.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS IS NOISY, MARKETS ARE CALM
🟡 Neutral — fear is declining, but the backdrop is fragile
Despite the stream of geopolitical news (Iran/oil, US–China trade tensions, sanctions agenda), the classic “anxiety gauges” today are rather calming: the VIX fell to 17.38 (week -1.43), and the dollar and yields barely moved (10-year at 4.43%, unchanged on the day). This looks like a pause ahead of tomorrow’s US labor market data — именно they can quickly bring nervousness back to rates and the dollar.
Crypto is holding up confidently on the week: BTC around $80,957 (+6.26% over 7 days), while a small intraday dip (-0.47%). An important nuance — daily inflows into BTC ETFs cooled sharply ($46M vs $467M yesterday), but the weekly total is still strong (around $1.46B), so the “demand cushion” remains. BTC dominance remains high (58.58% and rising over the month), which still hints at a tilt in favor of BTC versus alts; compared with yesterday, the key change is not rising rates, but declining anxiety alongside a slowdown in daily ETF inflows.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) Tomorrow’s NFP: strong data could push yields higher and increase pressure on risk.
2) The dynamics of inflows into BTC ETFs: it’s important whether the weekly impulse will remain with weak daily inflows.
3) The $80,000 level for BTC: holding it will support the scenario of a continued rise; losing it will increase the risk of a pullback.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.39 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.43% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.93% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.96% | +0.51% |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.29% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.60% | — |
| VIX | 17.38 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.50% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.58% | — |
| BTC Price | $80,957 | -0.47% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.43% | -248.28% |
| BTC Return 7d | 7.28% | +1.68% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 35.79% | +1.82% |
| Fear & Greed | 47 | +2.17% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.70% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 981.93% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 1.63% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.69% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,716.44% | -0.01% |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 46.33% | -90.09% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 1,462.95% | +26.83% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 108.76% | -0.20% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 65.00 | 185.00 |