Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 13.05.2026
NeutralINFLATIONARY COLD SHOWER, BTC HOLDS UP
🟡 Neutral — liquidity supports, but rates scare
The main change of the day is the inflation jump: CPI 3.78% and core CPI 2.74% are above yesterday’s levels, causing the market to price in a more hawkish policy path faster. This is seen in the rise of 2-year yields to 3.95% (+0.05 pp on the day), while 10-year yields are flat (4.42%), and nervousness has ticked up slightly (VIX 18.38). The geopolitical backdrop remains noisy, but in the numbers so far it is expressed more in caution than in panic.
Crypto against this backdrop is surprisingly resilient: BTC around 81,206 (+0.7% on the day), but momentum is fading — the week is already slightly negative. The key weak spot is institutional flows: daily outflow from BTC ETFs is about -$233M, and the weekly inflow has sharply “deflated” to ~ $417M (it was noticeably higher just yesterday), plus AUM has declined to $107.31B. At the same time, systemic liquidity has increased noticeably over the week (about +2%), which for now keeps the market from a sharper drawdown; but as rate expectations rise, such support works worse, so the base case is a continuation of sideways movement with the risk of a sharp break out of the range on news and auctions.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) The reaction of 2-year yields and the outcome of today’s Treasury auction: weak demand could increase pressure on risk assets.
2) Flows into BTC ETFs: continued outflows will “eat up” the effect of rising liquidity.
3) The 80,000 zone for BTC: holding it preserves chances for stabilization; losing it will increase the probability of an acceleration of the decline.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.04 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.42% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.95% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.95% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.78% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.74% | — |
| VIX | 18.38 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.47% | -2.08% |
| BTC Dominance | 58.27% | -0.02% |
| BTC Price | $81,207 | +0.69% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.01% | +100.70% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.12% | +78.57% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 30.62% | -8.57% |
| Fear & Greed | 42 | -14.29% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.71% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 877.76% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 1.20% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.69% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,830.54% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -233.25% | -954.71% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 416.78% | -67.43% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 107.31% | -1.62% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 12 | CPI YoY | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| May 12 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.28 |
| May 13 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.88 |