Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 14.05.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS AND RATES ARE PRESSURING SIMULTANEOUSLY
🔴 Negative — ETF outflows and rising real yields
The key change of the day is a simultaneous hit from two sides: escalation in the Middle East has increased caution in markets, and after the inflation surprise financial conditions remain tight. The dollar is almost unchanged (118.04), but short and real rates have risen: 2-year Treasuries 4.00% (+13 bps for the week), 10-year real yield 1.99% (+5 bps for the week). With VIX at 17.99 the equity market is formally calm, but the “price of money” for risk continues to rise.
In crypto this translated into a drop in BTC to 79,399 (−2.23% over the day) amid a sharp deterioration in flows: BTC-ETF outflow for the day −$635m, and the weekly figure turned negative to −$751m. At the same time, BTC volatility continues to compress (30-day around 27.8%), and the sentiment index fell to 34 — the market is nervous, but the sell-off so far looks more like “pushing out” positions via ETFs than panic in broad risk. From yesterday’s “liquidity vs rates” balance, the market shifted toward rates and institutional exit.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC-ETF flows: persistence of outflows at the level of −$500m/day increases the risk of a break below 80k.
2) Real yields and 2-year Treasuries: further rise usually quickly pressures BTC.
3) Geopolitical headlines: any expansion of the conflict can sharply raise demand for “safety” and intensify the risk sell-off.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.04 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.46% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.00% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 1.99% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.78% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.74% | — |
| VIX | 17.99 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.46% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.16% | +0.02% |
| BTC Price | $79,399 | — |
| BTC Return 24h | -2.23% | -43.87% |
| BTC Return 7d | -1.92% | +19.33% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 27.80% | -5.73% |
| Fear & Greed | 34 | -19.05% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.71% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 877.76% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 3.72% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 22.69% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,828.02% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -635.23% | -172.34% |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -750.66% | -280.11% |
| BTC ETF AUM | 105.01% | -2.14% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 12 | CPI YoY | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| May 12 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.28 |
| May 13 | Treasury Auction | — | 4.88 |