Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 31.05.2026

GEOPOLITICS IN THE FOREGROUND, CRYPTO IS HOLDING UP

🟡 Neutral — macro is stable, but there is no inflow into crypto

The main topic of the day is the return of geopolitical tension (reports of strikes on Iran). At the same time, the “external fear gauges” are not flashing red yet: VIX around 15.74 unchanged, the dollar is flat, and yields over the week have even declined (10-year 4.45%, −12 bps; real 2.06%, −12 bps) — this slightly eases financial conditions, but does not provide a full-fledged impulse.

Within crypto, the picture is contradictory: BTC bounced over the day (+1.07%), but on the week it is still down (around −3.4%), and volatility remains low (30-day around 27%) — the market is “compressed,” and any acceleration of flows can quickly amplify the move. The key drag has not changed since yesterday: persistent outflows from BTC ETFs (over 7 days around −1.7 bn; daily flow −125 mn) and a noticeable weekly contraction in net liquidity (around −1.16%). The decline in BTC dominance against the backdrop of weak price looks like a cautious capitulation by some participants, although the sentiment index has ticked up to 28 — fear remains, but panic is fading.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) BTC-ETF flows: a slowdown in weekly outflows will be the main signal that the “pressing down” is ending.
2) Net liquidity: after the weekly decline, it is important whether the squeeze continues or stabilization begins.
3) Calendar: NFP in 5 days — it can shift rate expectations and quickly wake up the market.