Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 12.07.2026
NeutralGEOPOLITICS
🟡 Neutral — critical geopolitics, muted crypto reaction.
US markets are shut, so the calm tape is not a clean read on risk. Critical headlines now matter: proposed heavy tariffs on Russian oil and a Fed report warning inflation has been stepped up by tariffs, the Iran war and AI buildout; the reported US strike response around the Strait of Hormuz adds a high-impact oil-channel risk. Yesterday I expected confirmation only if BTC held $64k and ETF inflows exceeded $200m; instead BTC lost that line and the last available ETF print is only $90.44m, so the verdict is still sideways, not recovery. Crypto has not panicked: BTC is only slightly softer, while BTC volatility has compressed to 27.15%. The offset is liquidity: the latest print was near 90-day highs, but real yields remain near the top of their range and rate-cut odds are just 0.7%, so liquidity support is being balanced by policy and geopolitics.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC back above $64k before US cash markets reopen and VIX reopening below 20 keeps consolidation intact; BTC below $64k with VIX above 20 shifts the setup toward risk-off.
2) The next BTC ETF print above $200m would confirm demand; a print at or below the last available $90.44m leaves the recovery unconfirmed.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.69 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.54% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.16% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.31% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 4.17% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.82% | — |
| VIX | 15.84 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.38% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.28% | +0.07% |
| BTC Price | $63,943 | -0.33% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.23% | -264.29% |
| BTC Return 7d | 1.84% | +13.58% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 27.15% | -14.70% |
| Fear & Greed | 26 | — |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.74% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 774.06% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.55% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 23.05% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,960.99% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 90.44% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | 197.40% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 77.42% | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | — |
| DeFi TVL | 74.30% | -0.54% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | 304.70% | — |
| USDT Peg | 1.00% | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.20% | — |
| ETH Milestone | 1.10% | -38.89% |
| Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | 0.40% | +33.33% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9 | Treasury Auction | — | 5.05 |
| Jul 14 | CPI YoY | — | 4.20 |